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Abandonment, Cutting Fat, and Unavoidable Bankruptcy
Today, we’re changing it up.
We’re giving three bite-sized stories that caught our eye.
1) Abandon Ship
Microsoft, Disney and Meta (formerly known as Facebook) announced they’re cutting their metaverse divisions as part of a “restructuring.”
With Bitcoin down 56% from its highs, it doesn’t fit the company’s narrative in order to pump the stock. Nor Wall Street’s.
Longtime readers know that the narrative isone of Wall Street’s dirty little secrets.
Companies with shiny object syndrome are usually contra-signs.
Disney launched its metaverse division in February 2022 — three months after the peak. From TechCrunch:
“The metaverse division is headed by Mike White, who was promoted to the role from SVP of consumer experiences and platforms in February 2022 and charged with getting Disney deeper into the web3 space. The unit aimed to find ways to tell more interactive stories in immersive formats using Disney’s extensive library of intellectual property, according to WSJ. Aside from the Disney we all know and love, that extensive library includes Pixar, Marvel and all of the Star Wars movies and shows.”
The whole department was cut.
White got to keep his job. But “it’s not clear in what capacity.”
The big red flag, and contra-signal, was Facebook changing its name October 2021 — one month before the peak.
Kind of ironic given Facebook literally changed its name to Meta in an effort to go all-in on the metaverse.
Meta announced they cut staff in the metaverse division and discontinued its digital collectibles business.
From Business Insider: (emphasis added)
“In a year, the metaverse went from Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg's obsession to rarely being mentioned…
He mentioned AI four times, positioning the development of that technology as now being Meta's "single largest investment…
Now, Zuckerberg says AI is being built ‘into every one of our products.’
‘We have the infrastructure to do this at unprecedented scale and I think the experiences it enables will be amazing.’
Meta also focused on discussing AI in its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings. Executives mentioned it half a dozen times during a call with Wall Street analysts, while the metaverse was not mentioned at all.”
No more metaverse. All in on artificial intelligence (AI) vertical.
Hmmmm…… 🤔🤔🤔
2) Cutting Fat
Speaking of narratives…
A big narrative last year was cutting jobs to improve profitability.
Salary expense is, in fact, a good way to improve profitability. But it was the central narrative that had Wall Street send company’s share price higher.
Companies are still laying off workers. But this time it’s because the capital markets are closing at higher interest rates. Companies are battening down the hatches.
However, what piqued our interest was a company like Google — who made $60 billion in net income last year — cut more than just its employees.
The staplers were really just a headline grabber… even though staplers are being taken away from employees.
From CNBC:
“Among the equipment changes, Google is pausing refreshes for laptops, desktop PCs and monitors. It’s also “changing how often equipment is replaced,” according to internal documents viewed by CNBC…
‘We have been asked to pull all tape/dispensers throughout the building,’ a San Francisco facility directive stated. “If you need a stapler or tape, the receptionist desk has them to borrow.”
Google was known to spend an uncanny amount of money for just about everything. They hired tens of thousands of people over the past three years.
Now, even Google is taking notice about the excesses of its own spending... By cutting the fat from all sides.
If a company, despite clearing $60 billion in after-tax profit, cuts back on things like staplers and tape dispensers… you know the economy is undergoing a seismic shift under the surface.
3) Unavoidable Bankruptcy
Longtime readers know Bed Bath & Beyond is one of our favorite whipping boys.
In fact, BBBY is one of our flawed companies you should avoid at all cost.
We’ve gone to the extent of also calling it acanary in the coal mine.
Why? Here’s what we said January 10th:
“Its 2024 bonds traded down to 21 cents... meaning bondholders don’t think BBBY will make it to next year.
We don’t mean to focus on BBBY just for fun.
We’re focusing on BBBY to show you it’s a canary in the coal mine.
Hundreds of companies — public and private alike — won’t make it in this higher interest rate cycle.
The market has already priced in a lot of pain. Many tech companies are down 50-80%. Some are even down 90%.
But there’s a lot more pain ahead. Creditors have all the leverage now.
Many companies’ business models were based on cheap/free money. Now they’ll have to raise money and/or refinance at very costly terms.
Bed Bath won’t be the last company hitting the headlines of bankruptcy risk.
Check your portfolio. Expect the share price to remain under pressure if those companies don’t make money or have fortress balance sheets. Or worse… they go the way of Bed Bath & Beyond.”
Another headline hit the tape Sunday, April 2nd.
From Bloomberg:
“It took Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. almost two months to raise $360 million in emergency financing from a hedge fund positioned to profit from the deal. It wasn’t enough.
Now, to avoid bankruptcy, the retailer has three weeks to squeeze another $300 million from equity markets…
Cut off from direct access to its own cash and turning to third-party financing to convince some suppliers to ship merchandise, Bed Bath & Beyond is running low on options to dig itself out of a financial hole years in the making.”
It now has until April 26th to have a public float of at least $700 million in the previous 60 days — when it files its 10-K annual report.
Its market cap… is under $200 million..
Bed Bath & Beyond management has done everything in their power to stay alive. As they should. This time, however, will likely be the end.
Get ready for some “everything must go” shopping at the end of the month.
Good investing,
Lance
P.S. We’re trying some different spins on headline roundups in the weekly missive. What’d you think of today’s post? Mike and I value your feedback!