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The Inevitable, Lobbying, and Outflows Galore
Here are three recent stories that caught our eye:
1) Bed Bath & Beyond Declares Bankruptcy
Longtime Mighty readers know we’ve written about Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) many times. It was our #1 flawed company you never want to invest in.
BBBY was heading for bankruptcy long ago. Its business model is flawed. Meaning it never had a chance.
We told readers for almost a year to get ready for the “everything must go” signs. And now they’re here.
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) officially filed for bankruptcy this past Sunday, as it inevitably couldn’t dig itself out of its debt burden.
From Bloomberg:
“Bed Bath & Beyond estimated it had assets of $4.4 billion and total debt of $5.2 billion as of late November, according to a court filing. The number of creditors is between 25,001 and 50,000, with BNY Mellon having the biggest unsecured claim of $1.18 billion…
The retailer received a last-minute lifeline from the hedge fund Hudson Bay Capital Management — a deal that would have given Bed Bath & Beyond more than $1 billion under certain conditions. But the company failed to meet stock-price minimums, and the deal was terminated. Bed Bath & Beyond then said it would sell more shares in an effort to stave off a filing.”
This feels like the end of an era. But Bed Bath & Beyond was really more of a sentimental store. Like Toys “R” Us.
Bed Bath & Beyond didn’t sell much of anything you couldn’t have purchased online 10 years ago.
Yet investors kept thinking it could be salvaged.
It couldn’t. BBBY incinerated billions of shareholder value over the years. The number of public and private equity life lines it got in the last year was mind-boggling. It’s received well over $375 million to help BBBY resuscitate itself in the last few months alone. It never had a chance.
That money went up in flames within weeks – rather than years. The sheer arrogance.
We think BBBY is a canary in the coal mine for more bankruptcies to come.
The lesson you should take away: Don’t be a hero. When a company is circling the drain towards bankruptcy, don’t stick your hand in there. Want to know who could be next? Start with great products, bad investments.
2) When In Doubt, Lobby!
Contagion is a real thing. Especially for banks.
So what do you do when your fellow banks — Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) & Signature Bank (SB) — blow up… and then get bailed out? You lobby politicians!
From Bloomberg (emphasis added):
“Thirty-two of the largest banks and four trade groups collectively spent $22 million on influencing lawmakers in the first quarter of 2023, according to federal lobbying disclosures, up from $18.4 million in the same period last year.
Regional banks, including PNC Financial Services Group Inc., KeyCorp, and Citizens Financial Group, were among those boosting lobbying expenses at the highest rates. Bank Policy Institute, which counts large- and mid-size banks among its membership, nearly quadrupled its expenditures from $550,000 in the first quarter of last year to $1.9 million in the initial three months this year. None immediately responded to requests for comment.
…SVB, which in March became the biggest bank to fail since the 2008 financial crisis, spent $30,000, down from $50,000 it spent in the first quarter of last year. Companies are supposed to list the specific issues they are lobbying Congress about, but many are vague. SVB was no exception, naming only one priority for the first quarter: “Banking issues related to innovation and technology.”
When the government gives handouts… you make sure you get in line.
The best way to do that is to lobby! The return on investment is insanely high.
The conflict of interest is there. We know how things will play out. Nowadays, everyone gets bailed out in the end.
What’s worse, politicians will enrich themselves on top of everything.
3) Outflows Galore
Money flows where it’s treated best.
We wrote about that a couple weeks ago (see here).
Investors can finally earn decent yields in short-term bonds and/or their bank deposits.
Investors are right to move their assets over to where they get treated best. But there’s another reason why SVB and SB went under.
Turns out it’s the primary reason Credit Suisse (CS) went under, too. They saw $69 billion in outflows.
From Bloomberg (emphasis added):
“Credit Suisse Group AG reported 61.2 billion francs ($69 billion) of outflows in the first quarter and took a large writedown at its wealth management unit, underscoring the challenge for UBS Group AG in retaining key clients and assets after the emergency takeover of its biggest rival.
The Swiss bank lost more than 200 billion francs of customer deposits over a six-month period, culminating in several frantic days in March before the government-orchestrated sale. First-quarter results on Monday showed that its key units continued to lose money and shed clients, and the firm borrowed far more from a central bank liquidity backstop than previously known.
The figures give a fuller picture of the drama that ended Credit Suisse’s 167-year run as one of the most storied European banks and a sense of the work ahead for UBS. Ironically, in what may be its final quarter as a standalone company, Credit Suisse had a record 12.4 billion-franc profit, but only because of a gain tied to the controversial regulatory decision to wipe out many of its bondholders in the deal. Without that, it would have posted another loss.”
As we discussed in Money Flows Where Its Treated Best, there’s ripple effects due to higher rates. The fall of Credit Suisse being one of them.
Credit Suisse has been teetering on the edge of collapse for years.
But it wasn’t bad debt or a geopolitical crisis that put it under.
It was investors taking their money and investing it in somewhere that gave them a better yield.
Until next week…
Good investing,
Lance