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- The Market Was Wrong... Again
The Market Was Wrong... Again
Sometimes making the right market call doesn’t feel good.
That’s how we’re feeling today.
Here’s what we said August 23rd in our missive Now What?
“Regular readers know the Fed is hellbent on tackling inflation. They have egg on their face from getting it so wrong last year. And will do whatever it takes… even if they put millions of people out of work.
The market looks to have bottomed in mid-June. It seems to think the Fed is bluffing. That the Fed won’t raise interest rates that much longer because they’re pushing us into a deep recession. That they’re behind the curve.
We would probably agree. But the market is shrugging off pretty much everything the Fed is saying.
Here’s Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari just a couple of weeks ago:
Kashkari then said,
So the market — which sold off based on the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric over the past 6 months — is now discounting the Fed’s rhetoric for continued hawkishness?
The market was wrong this year. Especially about the rise of interest rate hikes.
It didn’t even think the Fed could raise rates to begin with…
Will the market make another mistake in 2023?
We’re no market prognosticators. Nor are we macroeconomists. So you won’t get a market call out of us.
But to think the Fed won’t continue on its warpath on raising rates to get inflation back down to 2% seems anything but a foregone conclusion.
This disconnect between the markets and the Fed’s rhetoric leads us to believe volatility is here to stay.”
The Federal Reserve Committee hosted their annual summit in Jackson Hole, Wyoming later that week.
The Fed called the market’s bluff and said it was, in fact, hellbent on beating inflation.
And what came of it was exactly as we predicted: Volatility.
Here’s what Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell said (emphasis added):
“We must keep at it [raising rates] until the job is done. History shows that the employment costs of bringing down inflation are likely to increase with delay, as high inflation becomes more entrenched in wage and price setting…
Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth… Moreover, there will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions.
While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain…
“We are taking forceful and rapid steps to moderate demand so that it comes into better alignment with supply, and to keep inflation expectations anchored. We will keep at it until we are confident the job is done.”
As we predicted, the market got it wrong yet again…
The S&P 500 fell more than 3% on Friday after Powell’s press conference. The Nasdaq fell more than 4%.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have been down 5 of the 6 trading days since. Three of those 5 days were down more than 1%.
Expect this to continue. Expect more volatility and likely more downside in most equities until the Fed breaks something.
Neel Kashkari said he was “happy” to see the market tank on Friday… as it showed the market the Fed was serious about fighting inflation.
Here’s a recap on Kashkari’s comments from a recent Bloomberg podcast (emphasis added):
“I was actually happy to see how Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech was received,” Kashkari said in an interview with Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast on Monday, reflecting on the steep drop after Powell spoke. “People now understand the seriousness of our commitment to getting inflation back down to 2%.”
“I certainly was not excited to see the stock market rallying after our last Federal Open Market Committee meeting,” he said. “Because I know how committed we all are to getting inflation down. And I somehow think the markets were misunderstanding that.”
Indeed the overriding message from Kashkari is that the Fed ought to err on the side of being too hawkish, and that the lesson from the inflation battle of the 1970s is that it’s a mistake to declare victory over higher prices prematurely.
“One of the biggest mistakes they made in the 1970s at the Fed is they thought that inflation was on its way down. The economy was weakening. And then they backed off and then inflation flared back up again before they had finally quashed it,” Kashkari said. “We can't repeat that mistake.”
Those words were very sobering to all investors who banked on the fact the Fed would pivot.
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President, Raphael Bostic, echoed a similar sentiment. Including bringing down housing demand.
From Bloomberg:
“[Bostic said]: ‘Inflation is high, inflation is too high and we have got to bring it down to our target…
So we have got some work to do. We have got to figure out how fast we are going to move our policy to try to arrest that inflation and to wrestle it back down to 2%…’
“We have got to think about how you reduce mortgages,” he said, adding the central bank would actively discuss its options. “We can’t just rely on maturation of these securities. We are going to have to actively try to sell them.”
This reiterates the Fed is serious about bringing inflation down. Meaning they want asset prices to go down. Equities. Home prices. And the like. They don’t care about unemployment going up either.
So you may think the best option is to go all cash and wait for volatility to pass.
But history says that’s a bad idea.
Trying to time the market is impossible.
Compounding only works with time. By holding and not selling.
Companies like Amazon, Walmart, Microsoft, and tons of other blue chips are up 20-100x+ over the past couple of decades.
Each of those individual companies have had their own moments of systemic risk and/or uncertainty.
Meanwhile, the world went through recessions. Wars. Natural disasters. Etc…
Any of which would have given you reason to sell.
Yet you would’ve given up thousands of percent in gains (and dollars) by selling early.
Said another way: You can’t double your money by taking a 50% gain...
It all comes back to a lesson regular Mighty readers and clients know very well:
Are you able to sleep well at night during this continued period of high volatility? If so, then you should hold onto your positions. Otherwise, consider selling down to a “sleep-well level.” (This isn’t, and shouldn’t be, considered investment advice.)
That’s what we said April 26th in our missive What Do We Do Now? (emphasis added):
“Would you panic if your portfolio dropped another 30%? If so, you’re overexposed.
It doesn’t matter if you’re sitting on losses in some of your positions… It’s not too late. You just admitted you can’t withstand more pullback psychologically. (Don’t worry, 99% of us can’t either.)
If the rest of these Generals get shot, you can guarantee the rest of tech will get slaughtered. (Yes, they can go down further. Remember, a stock that falls 90% first, falls 80%… then it gets cut in half).
Irrational selling or not. This is the market we’re in. You have to adapt to the market. It won’t adapt to you.
That’s where having an allocation to cash may help you sleep well at night. Capital now allows you to weather the storm. It’s purely psychological.
Because, truth is, you can’t time the market. Even if you can predict what’s going to happen, you can’t predict the real probabilities. Or the second or third order consequences. (Think: The markets booming because of COVID in 2020.)
Historical data suggests you shouldn’t touch your portfolio. Interrupting the effects of compounding crushes your long-term returns. So doing nothing is often the best move. Meaning stop looking at your stock performance everyday and potentially doing something stupid (i.e. selling).
But you need to do what’s best for you.
Anything to control your emotional level during times of high volatility. If that means raising cash and reducing your potential future returns. So be it.
Whatever you need to do to sleep well at night.”
Sleeping well at night is the only way to make it through this period. If it means raising cash despite the fact that many positions are down… so be it.
Managing your emotions during volatility is the most challenging part about investing. Especially during bear markets. It triggers our fight or flight response.
Because it’s not about whether the market has more downside. Or whether it’s bottomed.
It’s whether you can withstand the psychological pain of watching your portfolio move up and down in a wide range. And prevent the self-inflicted wound of selling too early… and interrupt the effects of compounding.
Because doing nothing in investing is often the best move.
Good investing,
Lance
P.S. Mighty’s Three Pillar Portfolio has allowed us to weather this volatility very well. We would love to chat with any prospective client who is interested in learning more about how we manage our client’s portfolio, all based on this strategy.